WeatherIQ™ is a collaboration between the National Retail Federation and Planalytics that provides weekly weather impact outlooks for select product categories or retail segments compared with the prior year. Learn more about Retail WeatherIQ™.
Small retailers know that sunny days can increase foot traffic and rainy weather can slump sales. Weather has a massive impact on business performance, and understanding its influence on customer behavior can be a powerful strategy for boosting sales. In fact, research shows that about $1 trillion of global retail sales each year are directly influenced by the weather.
NRF recently hosted a webinar in collaboration with predictive demand analytics firm Planalytics to help small businesses navigate the risks and opportunities presented by weather trends. NRF’s Katherine Cullen sat down with Evan Gold, executive vice president of partnerships and alliance at Planalytics, to discuss tips small businesses should consider to “weather” the storm and attract customers.
According to Gold, weather volatility remains the least understood, measured and acted-upon factor affecting business performance. It’s impossible to control the weather, but small retailers should prepare strategies to reach customers based on forecasts and weather patterns. “Retailers have a history of blaming weather for their performance, but it should never be an excuse,” Gold said.
An important way to be prepared is to use sales data to understand the weather's impact. That includes leveraging ecommerce. “In today's digital age, small businesses have an opportunity to reach more customers through an ecommerce channel,” Gold said. By using website analytics, retailers can see when and where their customers are coming from and tailor their offerings to the climate where their customers are based.
Small retailers should also showcase products and employ marketing strategies to attract customers based on weather expectations. “If the local TV station is saying there’s going to be snowy or cold weather, customers will go out and buy for that forecast,” Gold said. He suggested putting products that complement the forecast in more advantageous places in the store.
Additionally, small retailers should target their marketing efforts to the expected forecast. “Keeping an eye on weather conditions is crucial because it influences how consumers shop,” he said. He recommends leveraging social media platforms to quickly reach customers with messages tailored to the expected weather.
“Many businesses, especially small ones, rely on social channels like Instagram and Facebook, in addition to emailing their best customers. Hitting the customer with a weather-relevant message when and where they're thinking about making a purchase can be very effective.”
Gold encourages retailers to not only look at the forecast for the immediate week and month ahead but also think long-term about how weather impacts customer behavior. “Small businesses have already planned holiday 2025,” he said. “They should plan for weather in the same way they plan products for selling seasons and promotions.”
He also advised that retailers should consider what happened in the same period last year but be sure to analyze if that period was a weather abnormality, or something more routine. “Last December in Phoenix, Arizona, was the warmest and driest ever recorded. If you don't account for such weather anomalies, you might plan for them to repeat, but weather rarely repeats year over year,” said Gold.
Small retailers are encouraged to visit the WeatherIQ tool, a collaboration between NRF and Planalytics, which provides weekly weather impact outlooks for select product categories or retail segments compared with the prior year.