Future trends that will shape consumer behavior and retail operations

A trio of charismatic and insightful thought leaders shared their thoughts on what’s to come during NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show, highlighting trends as diverse as consumer guardianship, function versus vibe in a physical store, and the need to be age-agnostic when it comes to products and services.

In three individual sessions, Lee Peterson, executive vice president, thought leadership and marketing at WD Partners; Andrea Bell, vice president of consumer insights at WGSN; and Kate Ancketill, CEO and founder of GDR Creative Intelligence, spoke about the role of stores, strategies to future-proof retail businesses, and technology’s impact on operations and consumer behavior.

In our increasingly digital and virtual world, consumers will long for real, authentic physical experiences. Further, stores need the right balance of “vibe” and “function” to survive.

Ancketill terms it the “reality check”: There will be movement toward what’s real and true. At the same time, in our post-truth area — with deep fakes, loss of privacy, growing isolation, loneliness and economically tough times — adults will feel the need for more play. They’ll seek out emotionally amplified experiences, she said.

It’s time for physical stores to step up. A recent WD Partners survey of 2,500 people showed that 63% preferred to shop online, Peterson said. In 2018, that number was in the 20s.

The survey asked consumers what it would take for them to physically go to the store. The highest six scoring attributes were same-day service, sales, try-ons, fast checkouts, returns and buy online, pick up in-store services.

“Retailers and customers alike have been trained for 25 years to make stores like websites,” Peterson said. There’s a certain functionality that must be part of the physical space. But what about the fun?

The lowest attributes bringing consumers to stores were associates, exploration, inspiration, being with other people, friends and fun. What kind of job are retailers doing, then, in creating a vibe?

Stores that are considered good include opportunities for discovery, inspiration and vibe, but people don’t list these as the attributes that get them off the couch — because not enough of them exist.

Consumers don’t have to go to a store anymore, Peterson said; they have to want to go. It’s time for retailers to refocus on creativity, store design, paying their associates well, merchandising, visual merchandising and music to create a vibe — and a true experience.

We’ll move away from unconsidered mass consumption toward consumer guardianship, looking after products for a while and then putting them back into the economy. We’ll also see a significant rise in “moral injury,” with people wanting to behave differently but not being able to.

“Obviously,” Ancketill said, “the planet can’t cope.” The climate emergency, the cost-of-living crisis, increased regulatory imperatives and changing ethics will move us toward consumer guardianship.

Bell noted that some health care professionals believe “moral injury” could be an epidemic by 2026; it’s experienced by those who don’t feel they have a choice but to go against their beliefs, such as wanting to use public transportation but not having it available. Consumers in some regions have great interest in sustainable products, she said, but they don’t have access. As for companies not chasing eco-solutions, Bell said, there might one day be no choice: In some regions, retailers out of compliance with ESG guidelines won’t be able to sell.

Technology — and AI — will shift from reactive retail models to anticipatory ones. At the same time, there’s a need for brands and companies to be “gatekeepers” for truth and transparency.

Ancketill spoke of “empathetic AI,” and business models based on conversational, unscripted, intelligent agents communicating with consumers as individuals, as if they were real people. In the United States, she said, 142 million people are already chatting with devices like Alexa or Google Home. She also envisions a move toward post-app commerce, where intelligent AI “operates apps on our behalf.”

Bell, meanwhile, talked about “intentional tech,” with 42% of U.S. AI experts saying they’re both excited and concerned about the humans-plus-tech evolution. There’s a need for truth and transparency, with some companies already using verification stamps for artificial intelligence. On another note, it’s estimated that, within a decade, she said, the majority of people will manage a virtual human on their team.

Age-related stereotypes will be dismantled as demographics shift in significant ways.

Since 2011, Ancketill said, more diapers have been sold for the elderly in Japan than for babies. Twenty-three countries are due to halve in population by the end of the century. And if China, the world’s second largest economy, “catches a demographic cold,” she said, the rest of the world sneezes.

Fewer products — and more services — are sold to older customers. There will also be fewer workers in these areas and a greater need for automation; GDP growth will tend to slow.

As some countries age out, Bell said, others are exploding with youth. There’s also delayed childbirth and a redefining of families, as well as a need to challenge “chromonormativity,” or societal expectations of when certain milestones are reached. In addition, people might not have the money to achieve milestones such as home ownership or retirement, increasing the need for an age-agnostic approach to products and services.

We’ll experience the rise of two-tier societies, “stealth wealth” and political redirection.

In 2024, Bell said, 64 countries — including the U.S., India, the EU and South Korea — will hold elections. More than half of the world’s population will go to the polls, shifting governments, economics and trade.

She also expects economic growth in some areas while others are left behind; those such as the U.S., Western Europe and China will not want to show their wealth due to scrutiny and backlash. There’s a need, she said, to build for equality and equity. The only hope is “to get through it together,” she said.