Retail WeatherIQ

How the weather is shaping retail trends in early 2025

February’s chill, March’s thaw and a look ahead to the rest of the season
April 29, 2025
Friends chatting while shopping.

Climate-Proofing Retail

For more information on how extreme weather impacts consumers — and what you can do about it — check out NRF and Planalytics’ “Climate-Proofing Retail” white paper.

Spring is a season of change, and for retailers, that means opportunity. Understanding how the weather impacts demand isn’t just useful — it’s essential to stay competitive in a fast-moving market.

NRF collaborated with Planalytics, the leading provider of weather-driven demand analytics, to create the Retail WeatherIQ, a weekly outlook on weather impacts. Read on for Planalytics’ insights into how the weather has impacted consumer demand in early 2025 and what retailers can anticipate now that spring is in bloom.

February: Chilly conditions drove wintery demand

This past February featured the coldest temperatures since 2022, the wettest conditions since 2020 and the most snowfall since 2021 — a perfect mix to drive demand for winter products. “We saw the snow and cold dampen spending across some categories in February such as home improvement and restaurants,” says Evan Gold, executive vice president of global partnerships at Planalytics, “though these extended winter conditions spurred notable growth in weather-driven demand for other products like ice melt, heaters and boots.”

Weather-driven demand February 2025 vs last year


March: Warmer weather brings Spring prep

Spring kicked off in March with the warmest temperatures since 2016, the driest conditions since 2023 and the lowest snowfall since 2021. These warmer than usual temperatures drove demand for products in home improvement categories including fans and lawn care items, as well as apparel like shorts and sunglasses.

Weather-Driven Demand March 2025 vs Last Year
“Whether it’s snowstorms in February or a warm, dry March, understanding how weather affects your customer’s mindset is your secret weapon,” Gold says. “For retailers, the ability to anticipate and respond to these patterns is becoming a critical part of inventory planning, merchandising and customer engagement strategies.”

April & May: Possibility is blooming but severe weather threats can’t be ignored

April and May are projected to be cooler than last year, especially across the Eastern United States. That’s a cue for retailers to keep transitional goods in play for a little longer. But warmer conditions in the West are expected to boost demand for early-summer products — think garden, outdoor living and warm-weather apparel.

April 2025 Actuals + Outlook / May 2025 Outlook
Looking ahead at weather forecasts, we cannot ignore the consistent threat of extreme weather. As of early April, 2025 was shaping up to be one of the most active severe weather years in recent memory. Stocking emergency supplies and ensuring omnichannel readiness will be critical to how you show up for your customers and community.

Final thoughts: Opportunity is in the forecast

Weather volatility pulls customers out of their routines — creating or shifting demand. Tapping into that simple truth can unlock more strategic planning and strengthen customer relationships.

What’s your weather plan for next quarter? If you're not sure, it's time to make one. The Retail WeatherIQ is here to help.

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