Euromonitor International's Michelle Evans speaks at NRF 2025: Retail's Big Show.
Grocery retail in North America is growing in unexpected ways.
In particular, food spending is moving from supermarkets and hypermarkets and toward more convenience-oriented channels, including ecommerce, drive-through and click-and-collect, as well as value-oriented channels such as warehouse and discount chains.
“We’re seeing food occasions blur,” Euromonitor International Global Lead of Retail and Digital Consumer Insights Michelle Evans said at NRF 2025: Retail’s Big Show. “Meal occasions are blurring as well, and we can see that shift in terms of spend.”
Ecommerce grocery is forecast to increase by 5% in 2025, while food service growth is on a 2.7% path to growth, compared with just 1% for the North American grocery sector overall.
Even in online grocery, Evans said, the data is surprising. While online grocery is dominated by Amazon and Walmart, “the story is more nuanced in terms of where they’re succeeding and failing.” For non-edible products, Amazon is the dominant player, driven by Prime and subscription services. Walmart has increased its share of non-edible items, up 2.64% since 2022.
When it comes to edible items, which have a more complex supply chain, Walmart is the leader over Amazon, increasing its overall share by 5.9% since 2022. Similarly, she said, Walmart dominates in edible non-perishable items, increasing its share by 7.8% since 2022.
To achieve these gains, Walmart has leveraged its vast network of stores as distribution and delivery centers, as well as click-and-collect fulfillment locations. The retail giant has also made investments in its supply chain and has seen increased market share even in weekly shopping items such as dairy, processed meats and seafood, and meals and soups.
Another conflicting trend impacting how grocery retail is evolving is price versus values. “The idea of finding a bargain is still the top shopping motivation, but it is on the decline,” Evans said.
When Euromonitor explored the numbers further, it discovered an increase in North American consumers who said they made purchases from brands and retailers they considered authentic and that align with their personal values, and would even boycott brands or companies that don’t share their social or political beliefs. According to Euromonitor, 30% of digital consumers said they buy from brands that align with their values, and 27% said they boycott those that don’t.
"The idea of finding a bargain is still the top shopping motivation, but it is on the decline."
As food purchases continue to be influenced by digitalization — 58% of global consumers said they browse for food purchases online — and consumers enjoy more choice of channels, the shopping journey is becoming more complicated. That means companies must have more complex distribution strategies across a variety of platforms, Evans said.
“As shopping expectations continue to evolve and elevate, the challenge is providing that level of convenience for consumers,” especially for grocers having to reach shoppers across the full spectrum of convenience — from their phones to their local neighborhoods.
To adapt, stores are becoming not only a place of discovery, but increasingly, distribution hubs. “Tech will continue to be integral to continued growth both online and offline,” she said.
Grocery retailers are also leaning into other revenue streams, further blurring the line between brands and retailers. “Retail media networks have been growing,” Evans said. “Retailers are capitalizing on monetizing their new audience.”