This holiday season, no amount of shaking can help predict what’s in the box. Historically low unemployment rates, combined with the election, a return to bricks-and-mortar and a later Thanksgiving and Black Friday (as well as a Cyber Monday that won’t happen until December), means 2024 will be full of surprises.
According to the National Retail Federation’s holiday spending forecast, holiday sales for 2024 are expected to increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF also expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, compared with 509,000 seasonal hires in 2023. Those retailers may be pulling out all the stops to make it happen.
Check out NRF’s Winter Holiday insights and stay up to date on retail's busiest season.
“When you talk to front-line workers, including seasonal hires, they want flexibility and contentment at work,” says Edwin Egee, vice president, government relations and workforce development for NRF. “They want to be able to set their own schedules. They want to like their job, be friends with their coworkers, and feel included, respected and heard.”
According to extensive research into the desires of front-line retail employees, it’s important for employers to have an open door and listen to workers’ desires, he says. And if hires don’t find that, it won’t be hard for them to find it somewhere else.
“We’re as close to full employment as I can possibly imagine,” Egee says. “It’s going to be a challenge for our members to bring in additional labor for this particular holiday season.”
He’s not alone in his thoughts. Rather than focusing on, for example, the stay-at-home parent looking for a few extra hours, retailers might want to entice the younger generation motivated by discounts and being on-site, even if it means some additional training for those in a first job.
Recent investments in handheld devices and other in-store tech could help make the job simpler for new associates, says Kelly Pedersen, US retail leader for PwC, but “it’s still a work in progress.” On-demand and app-based labor are also catching on. Consider, for example, Target allowing on-demand team members to choose when they want to work by picking up available open shifts rather than having their name placed on a weekly schedule.
Strategies, initiatives aim to meet needs
Macy’s, Inc., for example, starts planning holiday hiring as early as August to ensure “a strong applicant pool and allow for more selective hiring,” says John Patterson, head of talent for the retailer. There’s also comprehensive training for seasonal workers focusing on customer service, product knowledge and operational procedures.
“Over time, Macy’s has enhanced its training programs to include more digital and online components, allowing for greater flexibility and accessibility for seasonal colleagues,” he says. Last year, Macy’s converted 15% of its seasonal hires to regular roles. This year, 33% of recent hires are former colleagues who have returned for the holiday season.
In addition, he says, “As part of our Bold New Chapter Strategy, we have improved holiday hiring by increasing staff productivity and offering permanent colleagues more average hours per week. This allows us to support our regular colleagues and hire fewer but more talented seasonal colleagues.” Macy’s looks to bring on more than 31,500 seasonal colleagues this year.
The NRF Foundation is doing its part to help the industry with initiatives such as RISE Up. The program offers training and credentials for those just beginning their journey in retail, covering skills like sales and upselling, customer service, merchandising, marketing and more. There’s also a new micro-training in customer conflict de-escalation. The RISE Up program was developed in collaboration with more than 30 retailers, and more than 500,000 RISE Up credentials have been earned through alliances with more than 3,500 training partners in all 50 states.
Barbara Collins, manager, RISE Up curriculum and instruction for the NRF Foundation, says the main audience for the training is high school students, though other training partners include colleges, alternative schools, work readiness programs such as Goodwill and the National Urban League, and adult learning programs. In schools, the effort might be led by the district or by an individual teacher, and those involved recognize the skills taught go well beyond retail.
“It’s not only sales and customer service,” Collins says. “It’s also time management, interview tips, how to dress professionally, and how to write a resume and cover letter. It’s about problem solving and paying attention to body language, and verbal and nonverbal cues. These are foundational skills.”
The estimated duration of the core credentials varies by program and includes an exam at the end of each course. The credentials help people land jobs and get promoted in retail and beyond. There are even resources that job applicants can attach to a resume, demonstrating their readiness for work.
“A credential like this might make them stand out,” Collins says.
Making a list — and checking it next year
If the holiday season still feels as uncertain as managing personalities, politics and unpredictable relatives at the annual family gathering, some recommend buckling up and planning ahead — as far as next year.
Programs such as Ken’s Krew, which started in 1997 with support from The Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone, provide a way of expanding the workforce with job placement, training and support for individuals with neurodevelopmental disabilities. It’s likely not an answer for holiday 2024, but these already trained and well-coached workers may be able to expand and contract hours depending on the needs of the season.
The Home Depot currently employs about 550 Ken’s Krew members in 10 states, and they have an average tenure of 5.9 years compared with the six-month industry standard. In addition to The Home Depot, Ken’s Krew members work with companies such as Wawa, CVS Health, Wegmans Food Markets and Walgreens.
In 2023, 52 Ken’s Krew members earned an NRF credential. That same year, three Ken’s Krew members celebrated their 25th year of employment; 10 celebrated 20 years.
Terri Neipert, executive director, Ken’s Krew, says there’s a minimum of 72 hours to place and train a member, in addition to time spent on an initial assessment process. There’s also ongoing training and support for both the employee and the employer for the lifetime of employment; Neipert says this relationship is key to the long-term retention of Ken’s Krew workers.
Ro Rodriguez, Ken’s Krew board member and vice president, rental, The Home Depot, notes that Ken’s Krew touches on all eight core values of her company, from respect for all people and excellent customer service to building strong relationships and giving back.
Like other retailers, The Home Depot does hire seasonal workers. The goal regardless is to provide meaningful jobs and to focus on the possibility of longer-term impact for those who want it, rather than just employment for a few months. She, too, touches on the role of in-store technology for seasonal as well as Ken’s Krew members; the PocketGuide mobile app helps with training and product knowledge, and the handheld “HDphone” helps with customer interactions and product locations. This can be especially helpful for those who are new, and for those who may need accommodations.
Ninety-two percent of Ken’s Krew members have stayed at a role for a minimum of a year; their hours may shift with the ebb and flow of the seasons.
Beyond holiday 2024 — or even 2025 — NRF’s Egee has his eye on policy changes that might help the ever-changing seasonal hiring landscape. He sees opportunities, for example, in ensuring that independent workers can more easily contract with businesses, as well as in collaborating with the federal government to ensure that immigrants in the U.S. seeking asylum are granted work authorization soon after arrival; they currently wait months to work.
He also believes AI will change the kind of jobs people do, and may provide new opportunities for workers in retail.
“When it comes to bringing new workers into the equation, there are a lot of different ways that happens,” Egee says. “And the economy is incredibly dynamic.”
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