What retail and industry leaders are watching in 2026

The retail industry entered 2026 amid rapid change, shaped by evolving consumer expectations, technological innovation and an economy that remains resilient despite uncertainty. Those dynamics were front and center during NRF’s sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer, where retail leaders, industry analysts and consumer experts examined what’s ahead for retailers and shoppers in the year to come.

Retail’s impact on the U.S. economy

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay set the tone for the program by underscoring retail’s scale and economic impact. Retail supports more than 55 million U.S. jobs and contributes trillions of dollars to GDP, making it the nation’s largest private‑sector employer.

Supply chains, trade and delivering value

A conversation with Shay, Bob Eddy, NRF chairman and chairman and CEO of BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, highlighted how global supply chains are changing, and why it matters.

Seroka described the Port of Los Angeles as a national economic engine, with cargo touching every congressional district. In recent years, sourcing has diversified, with imports shifting toward Southeast Asia while overall trade volumes continue to grow. Investments in data‑sharing platforms, automation and logistics technology have helped ports and retailers improve efficiency and keep goods moving smoothly to store shelves.

For retailers, that efficiency directly supports consumer value. Eddy noted that value today is more than just price — it’s the intersection of affordability, quality and convenience. Retailers are using technology to ensure products are available when and where customers want them, whether in stores, online or through delivery and pickup options.

Technology, innovation and jobs

Technology is also reshaping the retail workforce. Automation and AI are transforming supply chains and store operations, and panelists stressed that innovation is creating new roles rather than replacing workers. From data analytics to robotics maintenance, retailers are investing in upskilling employees so they can work alongside new technologies, supporting productivity, growth and long‑term opportunity.

Gen Z: Shopping, AI and connection

A discussion on consumer trends explored how Gen Z is redefining retail. Insights from Rachel Hardy of Pinterest and MaryLeigh Bliss of YPulse showed a generation shaped by economic uncertainty but still seeking moments of joy, self‑expression and connection through shopping.

Gen Z consumers are early adopters of AI tools, using them to discover products, compare prices and simplify decision‑making. At the same time, this generation expects transparency and authenticity from brands, particularly around how artificial intelligence is used. Visual discovery, personalization, and surprise and delight tactics continue to drive engagement, both online and in stores.

NRF 2026 retail sales forecast

NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews rounded out the program with the announcement of NRF’s annual retail sales forecast, projecting retail sales will grow 4.4% in 2026 to $5.6 trillion. This is stronger than the long‑term average of 3.6%. While economic conditions will vary by income group, consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by steady fundamentals and productivity gains.

Perspectives from the travel and restaurant industries reinforced that outlook, pointing to continued demand for experiences that also drive retail activity.

Looking ahead

Across all the conversations, one message was clear: Retailers are constantly adapting to meet consumer expectations. By investing in technology, strengthening supply chains and staying closely attuned to generations rising in purchasing power, retailers are positioned to deliver value, choice and affordability in 2026 and beyond.