What the retail supply chain will look like in 2025

Nobody knows what the next supply chain disruption will look like or where it might come from, but one thing is certain: Retailers will be prepared.

“I would anticipate that one of our challenges will be the frequency, size, scale and nature of whatever disruption we experience in the next couple of months, or in the next 12 months, or the next 12-18 months,” Sean Barbour, senior vice president of supply chain with Macy’s Inc., said during a panel discussion at NRF 2025: Retail’s Big Show led by Jon Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy with the National Retail Federation.

From creating playbooks for every possible supply chain disruption and coordinating internal teams so they’re all on the same page, to increasing sourcing transparency among partners and factories, retail supply chain leaders said they are focused on making sure they can handle whatever may come at them in 2025.

Retailers have learned over the last five years that “you have to embrace the uncertainty mindset,” said Abir Thakurta, vice president of supply chain at Havertys. “Uncertainties are going to be certain.”

The trick, Thakurta said, is to see uncertainty as a possible competitive advantage. “As an organization, what we’ve tried to do is see that as an opportunity … to outmaneuver our competition. If we’re getting disrupted, our competition is also getting disrupted, so if I can do a little better than my competition, there’s the opportunity.”

For Shaun Bunch, chief supply chain and retail officer at Northern Tool + Equipment, one potential supply chain disruption — threats of tariffs on goods from international trading partners — feels like déjà vu all over again.

“For the next year, all of us will be watching tariffs pretty close,” he said. “At Northern, we spent time shifting resources out of China to Mexico, et cetera, now to potentially have to re-shift – which, again, in a dynamic supply chain, you have to be nimble.”

Furniture retailer Havertys has had a diversified sourcing strategy in place for a while, according to Thakurta, “even before tariff conversations started.” Today, the retailer’s focus is on making sure there is full transparency of sourcing by its partners and suppliers.

The three supply chain leaders also said they are keeping a close eye on new technologies that can help mitigate disruptions, but are not rushing to invest in the latest new flashy tech, including artificial intelligence.

“It’s not so much, ‘Should we understand everything that’s happening?’ It’s, ‘Can we be thoughtful enough to adopt?’” Barbour said.

Even more important, according to Barbour, is how a new investment is going to fit in with the retailer’s current tech stack. “It’s a mixed world out there,” he said.  “If you look at a supply chain from the top down, or a fulfillment center from the top down, you’ve got equal parts antiquated, legacy capabilities, automation software, trying to harmonize with modern, sophisticated automation, and you’re trying to harmonize the integration of those two worlds.”

As for artificial intelligence, a lot of the opportunity lies in forecasting and inventory planning, as well as goods flow, Bunch said. “Those are where I’m seeing a lot of push continuing to go,” he said, while noting that before making any investment, retailers need to understand the challenge they’re trying to solve and whether technology is the right solution.

“But really ensuring that you’re looking at your network design and your inventory flow through that network design is where the technology push seems to be gathering and continuing to gather in this space,” he said.

All three said they rely on external partners to guide technology decisions, but more importantly, to help them navigate supply chain risks. “We get inundated with lots of technologies,” Thakurta said. “At the end of the day, in the retail business, I’m looking at tech partners to drive those conversations around AI … . I would go to them first.”

To get through the next few years of uncertainty, retailers are looking to build relationships with resilient and efficient supply chain partners that will help them navigate disruptions, Barbour said.

“When you look at the end-to-end value chain, and you look at the importance of relationship — whether that’s your internal partners, your suppliers, your providers, whoever it is that comprises your value chain — I think what we’ve found over the past couple of years is the importance of collaboration has only grown, and I think that has been largely been built on the foundation of transparency, visibility and trust.”