NRF Forecasts

Economic forecast
Economic forecast 2019

NRF forecasts retail sales during 2019 will increase between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent to more than $3.8 trillion despite threats from an ongoing trade war, the volatile stock market and the effects of the government shutdown.

A blue door with a holiday wreath hanging
Holiday forecast 2018

Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, NRF expects holiday retail sales in November and December to increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion to $720.89 billion.


Latest news

default image
Slower tax refunds and weather affect April retail sales but fundamentals 'remain positive'
Retail sales were down 0.2 percent in April from March but up 5.2 percent year-over-year.
default image
Latest tariff list is ‘far too great a gamble for the U.S. economy,’ says NRF
Retailers respond to administration's plans to raise tariffs on everything U.S. imports from China
Read more
a family is shown in the kitchen after grocery shopping
Who pays for tariffs? American businesses and consumers
Tariffs are a tax paid by American companies and consumers — not by the foreign governments targeted by the tariffs.
Read more