NRF Forecasts

Economic forecast
Economic forecast 2019

NRF forecasts retail sales during 2019 will increase between 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent to more than $3.8 trillion despite threats from an ongoing trade war, the volatile stock market and the effects of the government shutdown.

A blue door with a holiday wreath hanging
Holiday forecast 2018

Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, NRF expects holiday retail sales in November and December to increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent over 2017 for a total of $717.45 billion to $720.89 billion.


Latest news

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'Impressive' June retail sales beat records, show 'consumer remains engaged'
Retail sales were up 0.6 percent in June from May and up 2.3 percent year-over-year.
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Retailers still stocking up ahead of possible tariffs
Retail imports will remain high this summer, but will grow less than last year's rush to beat tariffs.
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Retailers hope for end of trade war after Trump-Xi G-20 meeting
NRF hopes President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi will lead to an end of the trade war.
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