NRF’s holiday surveys gauge consumer sentiment and shopping trends during the winter holiday season, including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, Super Saturday and Christmas.
Learn more about holiday trends over the years below and check back often to stay up-to-date on retail’s busiest season.
Slideshow: Click through the interactive slideshow to the right for at-a-glance data about how consumers plan to shop during November and December.
More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day weekend
Younger consumers are significantly more likely to shop over the Thanksgiving weekend. Among those ages 18-24, 88 percent say they are likely to shop and particularly enjoy the social aspect. Similarly, 84 percent of those ages 25-34 plan to shop.
Half of holiday shoppers have already started
- 56 percent of consumers asked during the first week of November had already begun their holiday shopping, about the same as the past few years.
- Consumers plan to purchase three or four gift cards on average at an average $47 per card for a total of $27.5 billion.
- Barbie remains the top toy for girls this year. For boys, LEGO tops the list.
Holiday shoppers plan to spend 4 percent more this year
- Consumers say they will spend an average of $1,047.83 this holiday season
- Shoppers between the ages of 35 and 44 plan to spend the most at $1,158.63
Find out when and where consumers say they will shop, who they’re shopping for and how much they’re planning to spend.
NRF forecasts holiday sales will grow between 3.8 and 4.2 percent
Holiday sales will increase to a total of between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion this year, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
- Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11 percent and 14 percent to between $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion, up from $146.5 billion in 2018
- 79 percent of consumers surveyed in September were concerned that tariffs will cause prices to rise, potentially affecting their approach to shopping
Note: Data may have changed due to ongoing U.S. Census Bureau revisions. The following resources contain data that was current at the time of reporting.
- Slideshow: 2018 holiday trends
- December survey: Procrastinators rush to meet holiday deadline
- Thanksgiving outcome: Multichannel shopping up 40 percent
- Holiday Podcast: Thanksgiving weekend and beyond
- Article: 5 things to know about holiday discounts
- November survey: Young adults likely to spend more
- Thanksgiving forecast: More than 164 million consumers plan to shop
- October survey: Consumers will spend 4.1 percent more
- 2018 holiday forecast: Retail sales to increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent
- 2017 holiday trends slideshow
- 2017 holiday season outcome
- December consumer survey
- Thanksgiving weekend outcome
- November consumer survey
- Thanksgiving weekend forecast
- October consumer survey
- 2017 forecast