"Consumers are spending more freely and retailers are stocking up."NRF VP Jonathan Gold
WASHINGTON – Imports at the nation’s major retail container ports should see double-digit year-over-year increases for the next two months as a growing economy increases the demand for affordable merchandise, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Consumers are spending more freely and retailers are stocking up for the spring and summer seasons,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Merchants are making sure they are prepared to meet growing demand, and imports are essential to providing American families with the products they need at prices they can afford.”
“The threat of a ‘border adjustment’ tax, withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a possible rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement might eventually dampen the trading spirit and discourage international trade,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “In the meantime, the opposite is happening – trade is continuing to grow despite these developments in Washington.”
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled an unusually high 1.67 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in January, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. The large volume came as factories in Asia shipped a surge of products ahead of Lunar New Year shutdowns and was up 6.5 percent from December and 12.5 percent year-over-year. One TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.
February was estimated at 1.61 million TEU, up 4.2 percent from last year. March is forecast at 1.46 million TEU, up 10.6 percent from last year; April at 1.59 million TEU, up 10.1 percent; May at 1.67 million TEU, up 2.9 percent; June at 1.66 million TEU, up 5.5 percent, and July at 1.71 million TEU, up 5.2 percent.
The first half of 2017 is expected to total 9.7 million TEU, up 7.4 percent from the first half of 2016. Cargo volume for 2016 totaled 18.8 million TEU, up 3.1 percent from 2015, which had grown 5.4 percent from 2014.
NRF has forecast that job and income growth coupled with low debt will drive 2017 retail sales – excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants – to increase between 3.7 and 4.2 percent over 2016. Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales because only the number of containers is counted, not the value of the cargo inside, but nonetheless provides a barometer of retailers’ expectations.
Source: National Retail Federation/Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker Report
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at www.nrf.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet retailers from the United States and more than 45 countries. Retail is the nation’s largest private sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.6 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy. NRF.com
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com