Import Cargo Volume Expected to Be Down in First Half of 2026, But Too Soon to Tell Impact from Iran
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers.”
WASHINGTON, March 9, 2026 — Imports at major U.S. container ports are expected to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, but it is too soon to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”
The Supreme Court last month ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. President Donald Trump immediately responded by announcing a temporary, 150-day 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the administration later said the rate could be increased to 15%. The administration is also looking at launching a series of new Section 301 trade investigations.
Meanwhile, it is too soon to see an impact on U.S. container imports from the action in Iran that began just over a week ago, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.
“The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region,” Hackett said. “While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in January, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have not yet reported their data. That was up 3.8% from December but down 6.4% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for February, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2%; April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7%; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8%, and July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%.
Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The year-over-year increases in May and June are largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025.
Imports during 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com
About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com