Import Cargo Volume Expected to Remain Below 2025 Levels Despite May-June Bump

WASHINGTON — Import volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to remain below last year’s levels into early fall despite a skewed year-over-year bump in May and June, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”

Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said retailers have been cautious about building up inventories.

“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett said. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in March, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.6% year over year and up 13.6% from February, when many Asian factories were closed for Lunar New Year celebrations and bad weather delayed the arrival of cargo at some U.S. ports.

Ports have not yet reported April numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.6% year over year. May is forecast at 2.17 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year; June at 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2%; July at 2.2 million TEU, down 7.8%; August at 2.19 million TEU, down 5.5%, and September at 2.08 million TEU, down 1.3%.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.59 million TEU, up 0.5% from the same period in 2025 thanks, in part, to the May-June increases.

Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com

About Hackett Associates
Hackett Associates provides expert consulting, research and advisory services to the international maritime industry, government agencies and international institutions. www.hackettassociates.com