From left: NRF's Bill Thorne, Jack Kleinhenz and Mark Mathews speak on the Retail Gets Real podcast.
Read the latest Retail Economic Perspective and gain insights from NRF expert Mark Mathews.
As the retail industry continues to evolve, understanding the broader economic landscape has never been more important. On this episode of Retail Gets Real, two of NRF’s top economic minds — Senior Economic Advisor Jack Kleinhenz and Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews — join the podcast to break down what’s driving the U.S. economy, what to expect for the second half of 2025 and what it all means for retailers and consumers alike.
Despite persistent headlines forecasting doom, the U.S. consumer continues to surprise economists. From steady job growth to positive wage trends, Kleinhenz and Mathews agree that most households remain resilient. But beneath the surface, signs of stress are emerging — especially for lower-income consumers feeling the pinch from inflation and shrinking savings. Still, consumption remains strong overall, driven by a complex mix of economic conditions and consumer sentiment.
“We’re seeing a more cautious consumer, but not one that’s pulling back completely,” Kleinhenz says. “They’re still spending — just more selectively.”
For much of 2024 and early 2025, the economy has defied recession forecasts. But the big question now is: Will the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation result in a soft landing, or tip the economy into a slowdown? Both guests offer thoughtful perspectives on interest rate policy, inflation trends, and the potential for continued economic growth without overheating.
“Retailers should be planning for moderation, not collapse,” Mathews says. “This is a period of recalibration, not retreat.”
As retailers look ahead, Mathews and Kleinhenz highlight several key indicators to keep an eye on — consumer confidence, employment data and housing market trends all have downstream impacts on discretionary spending. They also discuss how supply chain pressures have eased and what that means for pricing strategies.
“We’re not just looking at one variable,” Mathews says. “It’s a confluence of factors that shape retail health — and many of them are still signaling opportunity.”
Kleinhenz, who has stepped down from his role as NRF’s chief economist after more than a decade of service, reflects on his tenure and the importance of translating complex economic trends into stories retailers can understand and act on. Both guests emphasize the value of clear, data-driven insights to help retailers make smarter decisions and stay resilient.
Listen to the full episode for practical analysis, expert commentary and a look behind the numbers from two of retail’s most respected economic voices.
(00:00:00) Reflecting on 15 years of economic insight
How the 2008 financial crisis shaped Kleinhenz’s early days at NRF
What drew Kleinhenz to the field of economics — and why it’s more than just finance
How research supports retail forecasting at the National Retail Federation
The intersection of data, sociology, and behavior in understanding the consumer economy
(00:06:40) Forecasting through uncertainty
How NRF challenged the “retail apocalypse” narrative
Why consumer-facing bankruptcies hit harder in the headlines
What COVID-19 taught economists about adapting economic models
How retail’s visibility makes it central to public economic perception
(00:08:16) The rise of AI and the future of retail
How retailers are using AI to optimize the customer journey
A behind-the-scenes look at Amazon’s automated product page updates
Why AI-driven personalization could reshape omnichannel experiences
What makes today’s tech transformation faster than past innovations
(00:09:47) The real impact of AI on retail and jobs
Why consumers embrace AI while the industry debates it
How new tech sparks fear—yet jobs persist through change
Lessons from history on employment and innovation
What drew Kleinhenz to focus his economic career on retail
(00:12:46) Navigating a globalized retail economy
How borderless commerce is reshaping shopping habits
Why tariffs and inflation add uncertainty to recovery
What consumer behavior reveals about economic pressure
Long-term concerns about labor, policy and population growth
(00:18:45) Advice for students, book recs, and a look back
Why economics is a powerful major for problem-solvers
Recommended reads from Kleinhenz and Mathews — from history to humor
Parting reflections on a career of economic insight
The lasting impact of retail data on decision-making
Become an NRF member and join the world’s largest retail trade association
Learn about retail advocacy at nrf.com/advocacy
Find more episodes at retailgetsreal.com
