NRF forecasts that retail sales during 2025 will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024 to between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. Last year, annual retail sales grew 3.6% over 2023 and totaled $5.29 trillion. The 2025 forecast is in line with the 10-year average annual sales growth of 3.6% prior to the pandemic.
NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total sales forecast, will increase between 7% and 9% year over year to a range of $1.5 trillion to $1.60 trillion. That compares with online and non-store sales growth of 8.1% to $1.47 trillion in 2024. Much of the growth in ecommerce is due to multichannel sales, which rely heavily on physical stores. Ecommerce sales in 2024 accounted for 16.1% of total retail sales, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
NRF does include the potential impact of tariffs in its forecast, but indirectly. It is very difficult to directly measure the breadth, quantum and duration of the tariffs on retail sales at this time. We have factored higher inflation, slower job growth and slower economic activity into our modeling. The significant policy uncertainty from numerous factors is implied by the range of our forecast. While there are downside risks, given the current economic and policy climate, there are also potential positive outcomes.
Inflation is taken into consideration in our forecasts as inflation can impact how, when and how much consumers spend. However, the forecast is presented on a nominal basis, which means that it is not inflation-adjusted. Retailers measure their performance as does the industry in nominal terms.
Calculating a real, inflation-adjusted retail sales growth figure is much more complicated than subtracting inflation from nominal retail sales growth. Each individual retail sales category has a different price level associated with it. Cars and groceries have had very high inflation while home goods and online purchases have been lower.
NRF’s forecast is based on economic modeling that considers a variety of indicators including employment, wages, disposable income, consumer credit and previous retail sales. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.
NRF’s modeling of the economy and retail sales incorporates price changes. Our belief is that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a more complete and accurate measure of consumer inflation.
In 2024, retail sales grew 3.6% over 2023 to $5.29 trillion, meeting NRF’s forecast.
Retail sales, as defined by NRF, include both store-based and online purchases in a broad range of retail categories including discount stores, department stores, grocers and specialty stores, but exclude purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
NRF defines shopping as browsing items with the intent to purchase, whether online or in stores. Purchasing is the act of actually buying a product.