Unwrapping the impacts of weather on Holiday 2026 shopping

With October in the rearview, consumers have turned their minds to the winter holidays and many have already begun their holiday shopping. For many retailers, the final months of the year represent a significant portion of annual sales. Holiday sales during the 2026 season are projected to surpass $1 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation, representing a year-over-year growth of 4.2%.  

Shopping in the colder months 

Many factors impact consumer spending and purchasing behavior over the holidays, including the weather, which has a significant and direct influence on shoppers. Just because sales increase for many retailers during the holiday period does not mean the impacts of weather go away. In fact, it is quite the opposite. 

For many retailers — particularly bricks-and-mortar stores — dry conditions with seasonal to mild temperatures are ideal to bring customers into stores. Not only does the weather influence if a customer goes into a store, it also influences the items they place in their shopping baskets. If conditions “feel” cold to the consumer, they are more likely to purchase seasonal apparel (coats, sweaters, gloves, hats, etc.) as well as hot foods and drinks during their shopping trips. 

Warm pumpkin spice 

October across the United States was the warmest since 2023 and the driest since 2024, with warm and dry conditions for most major markets. Outdoor activities and related categories such as cold drinks, exterior paint, lawn care, sporting goods and auto care all experienced weather-driven increases. For many retailers, demand for fall categories has yet to spike in earnest.  

Falling leaves and rising sales 

As the calendar flips to the November and December holiday timeframe, many cold weather categories can expect weather-driven increases. Retailers should focus on regional opportunities. The largest increases in demand for cold weather categories will be focused from the Rockies to the West Coast. Warmer conditions along much of the East Coast and Midwest will support foot traffic into shopping centers.

For reference, November 2025 was the warmest in five years and driest since 2023. December was the coldest since 2022 and the driest since 2017, although it had the most snow since 2022. In addition, the Black Friday weekend (Nov. 27 – 30, 2025) was colder than normal for most of the U.S., with eastern regions of the country having the coldest deviations to normal while many western markets trended warmer than typical. 

While you can’t control the weather, you can control how it affects your business. Throughout October and the holiday season, tracking weather-driven insights helps retailers proactively meet customer needs, and hit business goals across every team. 

Retail WeatherIQ, created in partnership between NRF and Planalytics, provides weather-driven demand insights to improve both strategic and tactical functions of a business, giving retailers a proactive approach to assessing and addressing the impact of climate and weather. 

Evan Gold is executive vice president, global partnership and alliances with Planalytics.