Disruption is the new supply chain normal

Retail supply chains have been caught in a constant state of disruption for the past decade. What was once a stable, predictable environment has become a constant state of uncertainty. From the introduction of tariffs on China during the first Trump administration and the unprecedented upheaval caused by COVID-19 to new global tariffs and the new conflict in the Middle East, retailers have learned that disruption is no longer the exception — it’s the rule. 

Supply chains that were built around efficiency, cost minimization and just-in-time deliveries have been tested like never before. Each crisis has forced companies to rethink their strategies, build in more flexibility and strengthen their ability to quickly adapt to the latest situation. The pandemic, in particular, exposed vulnerabilities in global sourcing, logistics and inventory management, prompting a shift toward regionalization and diversification of suppliers.  

But the disruptions didn’t end with the pandemic. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea that began in 2023 forced carriers to find alternate routes, adding time and expense to the supply chain. Geopolitical tensions such as those seen now in the Middle East continue to threaten critical shipping routes and supply lines, including a resumption of tensions in the Red Sea. 

Tariff changes have happened with little warning, impacting product costs and availability. The Supreme Court has struck down tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and importers are waiting for a tariff refund process to be implemented. However, the administration is moving forward with a series of new tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 as well as new Section 301 trade investigations and expansion of current Section 232 tariffs, with some additional investigations to be announced.  

There are questions surrounding the frameworks and agreements on reciprocal trade that have been negotiated under the IEEPA tariffs and whether they will stay in place. In addition, with the upcoming July review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, there are questions about whether the agreement will remain trilateral or if the United States will withdraw. A withdrawal would have a significant negative impact on North American supply chains. 

These ongoing events aren’t isolated. They are part of a larger pattern that shows supply chain volatility is here to stay. Retailers must acknowledge that the new normal is a state of ongoing disruption, requiring a fundamental shift in mindset. It’s no longer “what if” something happens, but “when” a disruptive event will occur. 

So how should retailers respond? The key is proactive planning and preparation. That means not only anticipating potential disruptions but also creating contingency and mitigation plans to quickly deal with them. 

Scenario planning, risk assessments and regular reviews of supplier networks are essential. Retailers must invest in technologies like supply chain visibility platforms, predictive analytics and automation to gain real-time insights and react quickly when things change. 

Collaboration is also key. Working closely with both internal teams and external partners allows retailers to share information, align strategies and respond to challenges as a unified front. C-suite engagement is critical. Internal cross-functional cooperation — between procurement, logistics, compliance, legal, finance and others — ensures that everyone is aware of potential risks and ready to act. Externally, strong relationships with suppliers, logistics providers and even competitors can create new solutions and resources in times of crisis. 

Flexibility must be built into every aspect of the supply chain. Retailers should aim to diversify their supplier base, avoid over-reliance on a single region and develop alternative shipping routes. Agile inventory strategies, such as holding safety stock or leveraging bonded warehouses or free trade zones, can help buffer against shocks. Investing in digital tools that enable rapid communication and decision-making is equally important. 

Ultimately, retailers that thrive in the face of disruption are those who accept it as the new normal and make resilience their top priority. By planning for uncertainty, collaborating across the system and embracing technology, they can turn disruption from a threat into an opportunity. The supply chain landscape may never return to the predictability of the past, but retailers that are prepared will be ready for whatever comes next.