What is NRF forecasting for the 2026 holiday season?  

NRF predicts retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025. This equates to total spending of $1.013 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 to reach $972 billion.  

How many jobs will retailers create for the holiday season?  

NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers in 2025. By comparison, there were 356,000 seasonal hires estimated the year prior. 
 
Similar to last year, retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, resulting in a measured approach to seasonal hiring. 

What does NRF classify as the winter holidays?  

NRF defines the winter holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. The season includes major holidays and shopping occasions such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa.  

In recent years, consumers have increasingly started their holiday shopping before November, and retailers have responded by offering holiday deals and sales events earlier in the season. 

What percentage of annual retail sales do the holidays represent?  

Holiday retail sales during November and December have averaged approximately 19% of total annual retail sales over the past five years, though the percentage can be higher for some retailers. Holiday sales can also be more profitable for retailers because higher sales volumes generally occur without significant increases in their fixed costs of doing business. 

How does NRF define retail sales?  

Retail sales, as defined by NRF, include store-based, online and other non-store purchases (direct-to-consumer, kiosks, catalog, etc.) across a broad range of retail categories. These include discount stores, department stores, grocery stores and specialty stores. NRF excludes sales from automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants from its retail sales calculations. 

Why do retailers put holiday merchandise on the shelves so early?  

Retailers put holiday merchandise on shelves early because many consumers begin their holiday shopping before November. For more than a decade, at least two in five holiday shoppers have reported they’re starting to browse and buy before November. Top reasons for shopping early include spreading out their budgets, avoiding the stress of last-minute shopping and avoiding crowds. 

Retailers have responded to this consumer demand by stocking holiday merchandise earlier and launching holiday sales events as early as October. Even with an earlier start to the season, most consumers finish their holiday shopping in December, with some continuing to purchase gifts in the week leading up to Christmas Day. 

Why doesn’t NRF produce an inflation-adjusted holiday sales forecast?  

NRF forecasts retail sales based on “nominal” (not adjusted for inflation) data and does not forecast expected inflation rates. Calculating a “real” (adjusted for inflation) growth number is much more complicated than subtracting inflation from nominal retail sales growth. Each individual product has different inflation levels associated with it.  

What role do Cyber Monday and Black Friday play in the holiday season?  

Black Friday and Cyber Monday are part of the five-day shopping period that begins on Thanksgiving Day and continues through the following Monday. These five days are typically among the busiest shopping days of the holiday season, as consumers shop and make purchases online, in stores and on mobile devices. 

In recent years, consumers have increasingly spread their holiday shopping across the season, though a growing share say they are likely to wait until the Thanksgiving shopping weekend to do most of their shopping. Retailers have adapted by offering Black Friday and other holiday deals both in stores and online throughout the holiday season. Some retailers may also choose to close their stores on Thanksgiving Day. 

Is NRF affiliated with Small Business Saturday?  

NRF is not officially affiliated with Small Business Saturday. However, NRF supports efforts that recognize small retailers and their contributions to the U.S. economy and local communities. An estimated 90% of U.S. retail companies employ 100 people or fewer. 

What’s the difference between shopping and purchasing?  

NRF defines shopping as browsing with the intent to purchase, whether online or in stores. Purchasing refers to the act of actually buying a product.   

How is affordability affecting the holiday season? 

Affordability is a top concern for consumers and retailers heading into the winter holiday season. With expenses rising, consumers are watching prices closely, comparing options and planning their spending around sales events to make the most of their holiday budgets. Retail is a competitive industry, and retailers know prices matter to shoppers. They are working to keep prices affordable, especially during the holidays. 

Why have retailers changed their return policies?  

Some retailers make return policies more lenient during the holiday season, understanding that there can be a lag time between when a gift is purchased and received. Retailers have worked to make the returns process easier and more convenient, including by offering different return methods, partner drop-off locations, prepaid labels and more. However, many retailers have also begun to change their return policies to account for increasing operations cost, fraud and abuse. 

What is the impact of returns on the holiday season?  

The vast majority of returns occur in January, after the winter holidays. In addition to returning items for a refund, many consumers use holiday returns as an opportunity to make an additional purchase or shop retailers’ post-holiday sales. 

NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report found that 17% of holiday sales were expected to be returned, while 82% of shoppers will return unwanted holiday gifts within one month of receipt. 
 
NRF will release new holiday returns insights in mid-December 2026.