NRF Research

2025 Retail Returns Landscape

October 15, 2025

2025 Retail Returns Landscape

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Returns are growing in importance — with both retailers and consumers. To understand how these pressures are shaping the retail landscape, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns, a UPS company, explored both consumer and retailer perspectives and priorities for the returns experience. Key findings include:

  • Total returns for the retail industry are projected to reach $849.9 billion in 2025.

  • An estimated 19.3% of online sales will be returned in 2025.

  • 82% of consumers say free returns are an important consideration when shopping online. 

  • Return fraud is an ongoing concern - the report found 9% of all returns are fraudulent. 

  • Almost half of shoppers (45%) say it's acceptable to "bend the rules" when returning items.