2026 holiday shopping trends: What consumers are planning

2026 Winter holiday shopping key takeaways

• Nearly two-thirds of consumers, 64%, say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, compared with 51% five years ago.

• Online remains the most popular holiday shopping destination, but the 53% planning to shop online is the lowest share since 2015.

• More than one-quarter of holiday shoppers, 27%, plan to give an experiential gift, up from 19% five years ago, with Gen Z helping drive the category to a new high.
  
  

The National Retail Federation's October Holiday Consumer Survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, found 91% of consumers plan to celebrate the winter holidays this year. These holiday shoppers are already planning their gifts, décor and more, and NRF forecasts holiday retail sales to grow 4.2% over 2025 to reach total spending of $1.013 trillion. Consumers are navigating economic pressures but still making sure to prioritize their loved ones and traditions, find the perfect gifts and enjoy the season. 

Holiday shoppers look for sales and value 

Thanksgiving weekend has always been a fixture of the holiday season, but consumers are planning around this sale event even more than they have in the past. Two-thirds (64%) say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, compared with just 51% five years ago. 

Thanksgiving weekend is not the only time of the season consumers will be looking out for the best deals and discounts. Sales and discounts (56%) are the most cited factors in shoppers’ decision-making around which retailers to shop throughout the holiday season. Value goes beyond price when consumers decide where to shop, with consumers also citing quality of merchandise (51%), selection of merchandise (46%) and free shipping or shipping promotions (37%). 

Online shopping remains popular, but is waning 

Although online shopping remains the most popular holiday shopping destination, its popularity has eased from its peak as consumers look to balance convenience with the experience of holiday shopping in stores. At 53%, the share of holiday shoppers planning to purchase gifts and other holiday items online is the lowest since 2015. For those opting out of online shopping, these consumers say they want to see and evaluate items before purchasing (38%), be more thoughtful by shopping in-person (23%) and enjoy the in-store holiday ambiance (22%). 

Even those who are shopping online this season expect they’ll complete less of their shopping virtually; consumers plan to do 52% of their holiday shopping online, less than the 56% we saw last year. 

Experiential gifts reach new record 

Over one-quarter (27%) of holiday shoppers plan to gift an experience this year, an increase from 19% five years ago. In the past, Millennials have been the generation most likely to gift experiences and, at 38%, are just as likely this year. But Gen Z pushed the category to its new record as the only generation with more planning to purchase gifts of experience this year. 

When it comes to wish lists, Gen Z leads the way in clothing and accessories, with 51% saying they hope to receive items in the category. Millennials also have clothing and accessories (50%) at the top of their wish lists, while Gen X and Boomers most want to receive gift cards (46% and 59%, respectively). 

For more holiday insights throughout the season, check out NRF’s Winter Holiday Headquarters.