Independence Day

What’s influencing consumers’ Fourth of July plans

Celebrations with family, friends and community could be affected by economic uncertainty and volatile weather
June 26, 2025
People celebrating the 4th together at the table

The Fourth of July is right around the corner and consumers and communities are preparing for the popular U.S. holiday. As people get ready to fire up their grills and decorate with red, white and blue, retailers are doing what they can to mitigate economic uncertainty and keep consumers stocked with holiday essentials.

Family, food and fun are reasons to celebrate

While Independence Day may not stack up in terms of spending when compared with other holidays associated with gift-giving, it has a special place in Americans’ hearts. In terms of popularity, it falls just after the winter holidays like Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa.


When asked why they celebrate, consumers were most likely to say it’s a fun thing to do with family and friends, while others want to celebrate the United States or consider the food and fireworks the main event.

Economizing given the economy

Community and social gatherings are a key part of Independence Day celebrations. In line with tradition, shoppers' top plans for the holiday include cookouts and attending fireworks displays.


At the same time, these plans might be complicated by concerns around price increases and uncertainty caused by tariffs. Most consumers say they’ve noticed price increases in meat, fresh produce, or frozen and packaged foods, which can put a damper on social events. In fact, those celebrating the Fourth of July are less likely to host a barbeque, cookout or picnic than last year.

Consumers aren’t the only ones with concerns. “As a small business owner, the Fourth of July is usually a time to celebrate,” says Robbin Nolan, owner of Robbins Aria - Creative Home. “However, this year, I’m bracing for frustration and lost sales. The tariffs have already increased my costs this year. I’m also facing delayed shipments, and I’m likely to run out of key products right as customer demand peaks.”

Don’t rain on my parade

The weather might also have an impact. According to weather-driven demand company Planalytics, July 4, 2024, was the hottest Independence Day since 2018. While temperatures could moderate this year, rain might put a damper on Fourth of July plans.

Even with this uncertainty, plenty of consumers still have flags, décor and apparel with which to mark the occasion. And 29% are planning to purchase additional patriotic merchandise within the next 30 days.

For more on consumers’ Fourth of July spending and celebration plans, check out NRF’s Fourth of July headquarters.

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