NRF’s holiday surveys gauge consumer sentiment and shopping trends during the holiday season, including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, Super Saturday and Christmas. Check out NRF's Winter Holidays FAQs and our Winter Holidays historical highlights for more information on the latest holiday season and years past.
2026 Winter Holiday Forecast Highlights
NRF predicts retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, equating to total spending of $1.013 trillion
NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers in 2026
Stay tuned for more 2026 holiday insights throughout the winter holiday season.
2026 Winter Holiday Webinar
Oct. 28 | 1 p.m. ET
Learn about NRF's 2026 holiday sales forecast, consumer spending expectations and the trends shaping the winter holiday shopping season.
NRF expects retail sales in November and December to total $1.013 trillion
NRF's annual holiday forecast predicts retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, equating to total spending of $1.013 trillion.
Explore Winter Holiday insights
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Additional media resources
Holiday sales forecast call recording
Download and listen to a recording of NRF’s 2026 holiday sales forecast call from Oct. 15.
Historical Highlights
2025
Press releases & blog:
Thanksgiving holiday weekend draws a record 203 million shoppers
Thanksgiving weekend expected to draw largest number of shoppers on record
Secondhand gifting rises in popularity as consumers consider higher prices this holiday season
Consumers to spend second-highest amount on record, according to NRF Holiday Survey
Webinar:
NRF 2025 Winter Holiday Consumer Outlook
Slides:
2024
Press releases & blog:
197 Million Consumers Shop Over Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend
NRF Survey Reveals Top Toys and Gifts for the Winter Holidays
Record Number of Shoppers Expected Over Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend
Steady Sales Growth Expected for 2024 Holiday Season, According to NRF
Webinar:
Slides: